I try to sum up the situation ahead of the opening of the Conference in Copenhagen next December.
was created in 1997 the international treaty known as the "Kyoto Protocol" on global warming. The objective of this treaty is asking is to reduce global greenhouse gas production by 5% in 2008-2012.
In 2002, EU countries agree to reduce their output of greenhouse gases by 8% by 2012.
In 2005 enters into force the Kyoto Protocol, ratified by Russia, meanwhile.
In 2007 the U.S. announced it will not sign the Kyoto commitment.
In a study entitled "Climate: true emergency "(Brioschi Editore) economist Nicholas Stern, the London School of Economics, former chief World Bank economist, says that the impact of carbon on the atmosphere seems worse than that estimated up to only two or three years ago. Today, the probability that average temperatures on Earth will increase by 5 degrees by 2050 is 50%. The last time the Earth was so hot was the Eocene. If this were to occur would be almost inevitable destruction of a large proportion of arable land in the world and the consequent beginning of migration by hundreds of millions of people.
According to the British scientist meeting Copenhagen in December it can become the most important international meeting since the Second World War.
Developed countries, where he lives about an inhabitant of the Earth in six (one in ten will be in 2050) alone currently accounts for 70% of emissions accumulated since 1950. In the future, but the majority of emissions will come from the so-called developing countries, however, argue that those responsible for the greenhouse effect to date are the industrialized countries and therefore it is right that these are having to bear the costs under the old principle the "polluter pays" and added that needing to get out of poverty when they find it impossible to give up on burning fossil fuels or cutting forests except to get economic aid from its major industrialized countries.
Currently the two countries most responsible for the production of CO2 emissions are China and the U.S. (alone will produce almost half of the total), and even then much will depend on the strategies that they adopt and which, however, in a recession like we face do not hide their big concerns about possible reductions in CO2 emissions.
In particular, the U.S. fears that adapting to the choices of other industrialized countries at the end can offer large economic benefits to India and China.
Meanwhile, the European Union, which had already given the following objectives by 2020:
- 20% renewable energy
- 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (if the U.S. will do the same otherwise it will stop at 20% )
- 20% increased energy efficiency
last October reached a new agreement for 2050 a further reduction of their emissions equal to 80-95% compared to those produced in 1990.
In this context, Italy, having spent the roof upon it by the Kyoto Protocol, to open new power plants would have to pay one billion euro. "This money - said our Minister for the Environment Prestigiacomo - paradoxically would go to countries like Poland that are less virtuous than us. "
In short, the scenario that will open the meeting in Copenhagen, it is extremely complex.
The main problem is that the Earth's atmosphere does not respect the time and the usual rules of political compromise and a further postponement of certain choices could be really dangerous.
Already a rise of one degree of temperature and resulting in further melting of the polar ice caps would cause serious damage to the arable land of Bangladesh and other countries located at sea level.
Michele Salvadori
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